The New Cold War? Russia's Offer to Mediate U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks and Its Implications

International Relations Analyst; Odeyemi Olufemi Damilola

Here is the last 24 hours in Geopolitics. 

 1. Trump’s Address to Congress and U.S. Policy Shifts  

President Donald Trump’s March 4, 2025, address to Congress—which was also his first since retaking office—was a defining moment for U.S. domestic and foreign policy. Titled "Renewal of the American Dream," the speech reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to economic nationalism, aggressive immigration controls, and a hardline stance on global trade.  

A major focal point was Trump’s claim that his re-election represented a “mandate not seen in decades,” a statement met with cheers from Republican lawmakers but strong opposition from Democrats. CBS News fact-checked several of his assertions, notably his claim that millions of Social Security recipients are over 100 years old—an exaggeration seemingly aimed at justifying entitlement reform.  

From a geopolitical standpoint, Trump’s speech signaled a sharp pivot from his predecessor’s multilateral approach. His proposed steep tariffs on imports, particularly from China, suggest a renewed trade war. Economic analysts warn that these measures could strain global supply chains, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors.  

Additionally, reports circulating on social media, particularly X (formerly Twitter) suggest unease regarding U.S. intentions to secure mining rights in Ukraine—an issue that could infuriate tensions with Russia. If accurate, such a move would align with Trump’s broader goal of securing strategic resources, but it also risks deteriorating global divisions.  

Implications:  

- Potential retaliatory tariffs from China, leading to price hikes for U.S. consumers.  

- Strained relations with NATO allies if the U.S. prioritizes economic self-interest over transatlantic cooperation.  

- Increased scrutiny over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, particularly if resource extraction becomes a focus.  

2. Russia Offers to Mediate U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks  

Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended an offer to mediate between the U.S. and Iran amid stalled nuclear negotiations. This unexpected move comes just as Trump’s aggressive economic policies sent U.S. markets into a downturn, a development reported by Firstpost’s "Fast and Factual" segment.  

Putin’s offer is not merely diplomatic goodwill—it’s a calculated geopolitical maneuver. By positioning Russia as a mediator, Moscow aims to:  

- Expand its Middle East influence: With ongoing Western sanctions, Russia seeks to strengthen economic and security ties with Iran.  

- Undermine U.S. credibility: By inserting itself into negotiations, Russia could weaken Washington’s ability to dictate terms.  

- Leverage Iran’s energy sector: As Europe distances itself from Russian oil and gas, Moscow may seek new energy partnerships with Tehran.  

Adding to the complexity, discussions on X suggest that NATO’s entanglement in Ukraine has left the U.S. looking for economic alternatives, including resource exploitation. If Trump prioritizes U.S. corporate access to foreign assets, traditional allies like Britain and Germany—already wary of Washington’s unpredictability—may reevaluate their strategic alignments.  

3. China’s Response to U.S. Tariff Threats  

 Beijing’s response to Trump’s proposed tariffs was swift and aggressive. Mint reported a sharply worded statement from Chinese officials, warning that "If war is what the U.S. wants..." While likely rhetorical, such language signals a deepening confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. This comes after the US under the Trump administration doubled tariffs on Chinese product to 20%

The Chinese government has several retaliatory options at its disposal:  

- Export controls on rare earth minerals, essential for U.S. tech and defense industries.  

- Increased tariffs on American agricultural products, targeting Trump’s voter base.  

- Stronger ties with alternative markets, such as BRICS nations, to reduce dependency on the U.S.  

China is already exploring alternative trade partnerships, and this latest development may accelerate economic decoupling. Meanwhile, concerns are growing that Trump’s protectionist policies could slow U.S. economic growth—Mint projects a modest 3.3% expansion in 2025, a rate that may drop further if trade relations deteriorate.  

4. U.S.-Canada Tariff War Escalates  

 Economic Tensions Between Longtime Allies  

The U.S.-Canada trade dispute escalated today as President Trump imposed new tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and timber, prompting swift retaliation from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. According to The Globe and Mail, Canada responded with counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, raising concerns about economic fallout on both sides of the border.  

Trump argues that Canada is “dumping” cheap raw materials, while Trudeau calls the tariffs “an unjustified attack.” The dispute threatens jobs in both countries and strains U.S.-Canada relations, with fears it could disrupt the USMCA trade agreement. With elections looming in both nations, the tariff war may be as much about politics as economics.

5. Arab Leaders Seemingly unite against Trump

Arab leaders have approved a $53bn reconstruction plan for Gaza and Palestine, rejecting the US president—Donald Trump’s— plans to relocate Palestinians from and taking over the area, with the initiative emphasizing on Palestinian rights, temporary governance by a technocratic committee, and international peacekeeping.